Weather Routing - Types of Recommendations and Advisories

An initial route recommendation is issued to a ship or routing authority normally 48 to 72 hours prior to sailing, and the process of surveillance begins. Surveillance is a continuous process, maintained until the ship arrives at its destination. Initial route recommendations are a composite representation of experience, climatology, weather and sea state forecasts, the vessel's mission and operational concerns, and the vessel's seagoing characteristics. A planning route provides a best estimate of a realistic route for a specific transit period. Such routes are provided when estimated dates of departure (EDD's) are given to the routing agency well in advance of departure, usually a week to several months. Long range planning routes are based more on seasonal and climatological expectations than the current weather situation. While planning routes are an attempt to make extended range (more than a week) or long range (more than a month) forecasts, these recommendations are likely to be revised near the time of departure to reflect the current weather pattern. An initial route recommendation is more closely related to the current weather patterns by using the latest dynamic forecasts than are the planning route recommendations. These, too, are subject to revision prior to sailing, if weather and sea conditions warrant.

Adjustment of departure time is a recommendation for delay in departure, or early departure if feasible, and is intended to avoid or significantly reduce the adverse weather and seas forecast on the first portion of the route, if sailing on the original EDD. The initial route is not revised, only the timing of the ship's transit through an area with currently unfavorable weather conditions. Adjusting the departure time is an effective method of avoiding a potentially hazardous situation where there is no optimum route for sailing at the originally scheduled time. A go/no go recommendation may be made to vessels engaged in special missions such as speed record attempts or heavy-lift voyages.

A diversion is an underway adjustment in track and is intended to avoid or limit the effect of adverse weather conditions forecast to be encountered along the ship's current track, or to take advantage of favorable conditions along another route. Ship's speed is expected to be reduced by the encounter with the heavy weather. In most cases the distance to destination is increased in attempting to avoid the adverse weather, but this is partially overcome by being able to maintain a nearly normal SOA.

Adjustment of SOA is a recommendation for slowing or increasing the ship's speed as much as practicable, in an attempt to avoid an adverse weather situation by adjusting the timing of the encounter. This is also an effective means of maintaining maximum ship operating efficiency, while not diverting from the present ship's track. By adjusting the SOA, a major weather system can sometimes be avoided with no increase in distance. The development of fast ships (SOA greater than 30 knots) gives the ship routing agency the potential to "make the ship's weather" by adjusting the ship's speed and track for encounter with favorable weather conditions.

Evasion is a recommendation to the vessel to take independent action to avoid, as much as possible, a potentially dangerous weather system. The ship routing meteorologist may recommend a general direction for safe evasion but does not specify an exact track. The recommendation for evasion is an indication that the weather and sea conditions have deteriorated to a point where ship handling and safety are the primary considerations and progress toward destination has been temporarily suspended, or is at least of secondary consideration.

A weather advisory is a transmission sent to the ship advising the commanding officer or master of expected adverse conditions, their duration, and geographic extent. It is initiated by the ship routing agency as a service and an aid to the ship. The best example of a situation for which a forecast is helpful is when the ship is currently in good weather but adverse weather is expected within 24 hours for which a diversion has not been recommended, or a diversion where adverse weather conditions are still expected.

The ability of the routing agency to achieve optimum conditions for the ship is aided by the commanding officer or master adjusting course and speed where necessary for an efficient and safe ride. At times, the local sea conditions may dictate that the commanding officer or master take independent action

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